Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | CONN -275 XAV +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +3 | 161 | Lost |
| Massey | CONN -9.5 (-12.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.4 (+3.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -8.1 (-11.1) | 157.9 (+3.1) | 76% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -8.3 (-11.3) | 153.7 (+7.3) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -8.0 (-11.0) | 156.6 (+4.4) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -7.6 (-10.6) | 157.4 (+3.6) | 79% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | CONN 93 – 68 XAV |
| Feb 4, 2026 | CONN 92 – 60 XAV |
| Dec 31, 2025 | CONN 90 – 67 XAV |
| Jan 26, 2025 | XAV 76 – 72 CONN |
| Dec 19, 2024 | CONN 94 – 89 XAV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-8 | 27-10 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 15-5 |
| Home | 15-2 | 15-2 |
| Away | 6-5 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 10-1 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.6 | 80.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.1 | 74.1 |
| Massey | 18.6 (#5) | 12.7 (#24) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.54 (#19) | 2.45 (#22) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.58 (#11) | 3.45 (#15) |
| RPI | 0.604 (#29) | 0.621 (#17) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 50.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 39.7% |
| REB / G | 39.1 | 38.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 1.59 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 56.0% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 35.7% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.7% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 75.5% | 75.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.1% | 18.7% |
Game Analysis
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