Betting Lines
| Spread | SIU -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | SIU -333 MUR +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SIU +4 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | SIU -7.7 (-3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.9 (+4.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SIU -5.1 (-1.1) | 132.1 (-0.1) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SIU -4.6 (-0.6) | 131.5 (+0.5) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SIU -4.9 (-0.9) | 131.8 (+0.2) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SIU -5.9 (-1.9) | 131.9 (+0.1) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | MUR 91 – 81 SIU |
| Dec 30, 2025 | MUR 84 – 81 SIU |
| Feb 20, 2025 | MUR 62 – 60 SIU |
| Jan 23, 2025 | MUR 74 – 64 SIU |
| Feb 22, 2024 | SIU 72 – 68 MUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SIU | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 11-9 |
| Home | 13-2 | 11-2 |
| Away | 8-6 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.0 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.7 | 72.6 |
| Massey | 3.4 (#119) | -0.6 (#187) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.25 (#75) | 0.12 (#166) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.08 (#100) | 0.16 (#164) |
| RPI | 0.566 (#69) | 0.512 (#156) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SIU | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 29.5% |
| REB / G | 31.9 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 6.7 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 21.8% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 18.4% |
Game Analysis
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