Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | ARK -800 LSU +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +20 | 100 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -14.2 (+5.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.6 (-38.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -10.6 (+9.4) | 137.9 (-37.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -12.4 (+7.6) | 135.3 (-35.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -11.2 (+8.8) | 138.8 (-38.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -11.1 (+8.9) | 138.2 (-38.2) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | ARK 91 – 62 LSU |
| Jan 24, 2026 | ARK 85 – 81 LSU |
| Feb 13, 2025 | ARK 70 – 58 LSU |
| Jan 15, 2025 | LSU 78 – 74 ARK |
| Mar 7, 2024 | ARK 94 – 83 LSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-14 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 2-16 |
| Home | 14-3 | 10-8 |
| Away | 2-8 | 0-9 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 70.7 |
| Massey | 12.8 (#22) | 2.1 (#134) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.84 (#45) | 1.23 (#77) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.32 (#43) | 1.20 (#94) |
| RPI | 0.610 (#24) | 0.549 (#87) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 27.5% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.3% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 75.9% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.8% | 19.0% |
Game Analysis
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