All your compliments and your cutting remarks are captured here in my quotation marks. "Everyday I Write the Book" - Elvis Costello
Missouri State Bears
63 59
FINAL Conference
UIC Flames
Missouri Valley Conference · Great Southern Bank Arena · January 25, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread MOST -12.5 Away covered
O/U 130.5 Under
Money MOST -1200 / UIC +650
Model Predictions
Spread Total MOST win
Actual MOST +4 122 Won
Massey MOST -13.4 (-9.4)
Massey Totals 130.5 (-8.5)
Bradley-Terry 86%
Weighted B-T 90%
Baseline ML MOST -10.6 (-6.6) 133.5 (-11.5) 84%
Baseline Plus ML MOST -10.6 (-6.6) 132.5 (-10.5) 84%
Efficiency Plus ML MOST -13.3 (-9.3) 132.9 (-10.9) 87%
Baseline Tuned ML MOST -9.7 (-5.7) 132.4 (-10.4) 85%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 16, 2025 UIC 6358 MOST
Jan 8, 2025 UIC 8063 MOST
Mar 3, 2024 MOST 6959 UIC
Mar 3, 2023 MOST 7457 UIC
Dec 1, 2022 MOST 6651 UIC

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings MOST UIC
Overall 17-15 12-20
Conference 12-8 4-16
Home 10-4 7-8
Away 5-8 3-11
Neutral 2-3 2-1
Last 5 2-3 0-5
Streak L1 L2
Avg Pts For 65.0 66.7
Avg Pts Against 63.7 72.4
Massey 2.6 (#128) -7.3 (#299)
Bradley-Terry 0.22 (#152) -0.98 (#276)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.25 (#156) -1.23 (#277)
RPI 0.527 (#132) 0.444 (#283)
Shooting & Four Factors MOST UIC
FG% 42.9% 41.3%
3PT% 33.5% 32.7%
REB / G 34.1 30.6
OREB / G 11.0 7.5
AST / TO 0.90 0.97
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.3% 48.5%
TOV% 19.7% 18.7%
ORB% 32.1% 21.0%
FT Rate 17.1% 24.2%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.8% 50.4%
Opp TOV% 19.7% 20.4%
DRB% 73.0% 68.3%
Opp FT Rate 21.5% 24.7%

Game Analysis

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