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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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12–7 on winners spread MAE 7.3 19 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
North Dakota @ Western Illinois	+4.8	138.2	71%	80–92	✓
Chicago State @ Coastal Carolina	+3.1	145.8	65%	74–70	✗
Colgate @ Boston University	-2.4	143.1	39%	64–51	✓
Duke @ Virginia Tech	+1.4	136.4	55%	75–78	✓
Oakland @ Detroit Mercy	+5.5	155.4	74%	76–67	✗
Pennsylvania @ Hartford	-11.5	141.1	15%	76–52	✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ North Carolina Central	+6.4	138.0	75%	59–58	✗
Coppin State @ Howard	+5.9	155.6	76%	76–90	✓
Norfolk State @ Morgan State	-0.8	148.3	49%	71–77	✗
Delaware State @ South Carolina State	+3.6	147.3	65%	88–85	✗
Florida A&M @ Jackson State	+8.7	134.2	81%	58–59	✓
Grambling @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff	-1.5	132.6	44%	77–70	✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Alcorn State	+11.2	148.6	88%	68–76	✓
Southern @ Mississippi Valley State	-9.2	136.8	17%	84–70	✓
Texas Southern @ Alabama State	+0.1	140.0	48%	71–65	✗
Kansas @ Baylor	+3.1	151.3	67%	69–75	✓
New Mexico @ Nevada	+2.3	146.5	62%	94–97	✓
Prairie View A&M @ Alabama A&M	-2.7	135.8	37%	59–67	✗
Penn State @ Rutgers	+5.8	129.8	73%	45–65	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.