Betting Lines
| Spread | NORF -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | MORG +170 NORF -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MORG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MORG +6 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | NORF -0.9 (+6.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.9 (+2.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 30% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NORF -0.7 (+6.7) | 147.6 (+0.4) | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NORF -0.5 (+6.5) | 144.3 (+3.7) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NORF -0.8 (+6.8) | 148.3 (-0.3) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NORF -0.4 (+6.4) | 149.7 (-1.7) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 2, 2026 | MORG 90 – 84 NORF |
| Jan 27, 2026 | MORG 79 – 78 NORF |
| Mar 14, 2025 | NORF 58 – 55 MORG |
| Feb 25, 2025 | NORF 69 – 60 MORG |
| Jan 14, 2025 | MORG 78 – 74 NORF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MORG | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-16 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 7-7 | 9-5 |
| Home | 10-2 | 10-2 |
| Away | 3-12 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 6-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.9 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.3 | 70.5 |
| Massey | -5.9 (#271) | -1.4 (#200) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.35 (#212) | 0.41 (#140) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.97 (#247) | 0.62 (#128) |
| RPI | 0.505 (#165) | 0.518 (#146) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MORG | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 22.7% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 33.4% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.5% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 62.6% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.9% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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