Betting Lines
| Spread | CCU -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | CCU -333 CHST +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CHST +4 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | CCU -4.1 (-8.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.0 (-2.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CCU -4.7 (-8.7) | 144.4 (-0.4) | 66% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CCU -5.8 (-9.8) | 142.5 (+1.5) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CCU -3.1 (-7.1) | 145.8 (-1.8) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CCU -4.3 (-8.3) | 146.1 (-2.1) | 66% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CCU | CHST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 0-0 |
| Home | 8-8 | 8-0 |
| Away | 3-11 | 3-20 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.1 | 66.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.3 | 74.3 |
| Massey | -5.9 (#272) | -6.4 (#286) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.10 (#184) | -1.81 (#326) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.67 (#223) | -1.94 (#314) |
| RPI | 0.512 (#155) | 0.411 (#325) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CCU | CHST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.6% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 21.6% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 32.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 66.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.4% | 27.1% |
Game Analysis
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