Betting Lines
| Spread | NCCU -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | NCCU -333 UMES +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMES +1 | 117 | Lost |
| Massey | NCCU -9.1 (-10.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.2 (-21.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCCU -6.0 (-7.0) | 135.6 (-18.6) | 71% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCCU -6.5 (-7.5) | 133.9 (-16.9) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCCU -6.4 (-7.4) | 138.0 (-21.0) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NCCU -5.6 (-6.6) | 137.2 (-20.2) | 71% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | NCCU 83 – 76 UMES |
| Mar 3, 2026 | NCCU 77 – 73 UMES |
| Feb 2, 2026 | NCCU 65 – 63 UMES |
| Feb 27, 2025 | UMES 68 – 59 NCCU |
| Jan 11, 2025 | NCCU 88 – 69 UMES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCCU | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-12 | 18-13 |
| Conference | 10-4 | 9-5 |
| Home | 13-1 | 10-3 |
| Away | 4-10 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.1 | 66.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 68.9 |
| Massey | -0.7 (#189) | -6.2 (#281) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.33 (#209) | 0.07 (#171) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.28 (#204) | -0.06 (#181) |
| RPI | 0.479 (#214) | 0.517 (#148) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCCU | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 38.0% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 29.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 22.0% | 21.5% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 18.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 23.4% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 27.2% |
Game Analysis
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