Betting Lines
| Spread | NEV -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | NEV -175 UNM +138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NEV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEV +3 | 191 | Won |
| Massey | NEV -2.3 (+0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.7 (+44.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEV -2.2 (+0.8) | 148.4 (+42.6) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEV -1.5 (+1.5) | 145.5 (+45.5) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEV -2.3 (+0.7) | 146.5 (+44.5) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NEV -2.3 (+0.7) | 147.9 (+43.1) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2026 | NEV 67 – 60 UNM |
| Jan 25, 2026 | UNM 80 – 73 NEV |
| Mar 5, 2025 | UNM 71 – 67 NEV |
| Jan 4, 2025 | UNM 82 – 81 NEV |
| Feb 14, 2024 | UNM 83 – 82 NEV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NEV | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 8-10 |
| Home | 14-1 | 15-5 |
| Away | 6-7 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 80.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 74.6 |
| Massey | 10.0 (#45) | 11.3 (#32) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.17 (#30) | 2.73 (#16) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.56 (#35) | 3.33 (#18) |
| RPI | 0.628 (#13) | 0.611 (#24) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NEV | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 48.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.4% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 24.5% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 31.7% | 29.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 75.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 17.9% |
Game Analysis
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