Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCA -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
| Money | UNCA -400 PRES +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCA +8 | 168 | Won |
| Massey | UNCA -12.4 (-4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.7 (+35.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCA -9.8 (-1.8) | 134.6 (+33.4) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCA -8.7 (-0.7) | 134.7 (+33.3) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCA -10.4 (-2.4) | 135.5 (+32.5) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCA -10.4 (-2.4) | 135.8 (+32.2) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | PRES 58 – 57 UNCA |
| Jan 15, 2026 | PRES 71 – 70 UNCA |
| Feb 26, 2025 | PRES 64 – 59 UNCA |
| Jan 11, 2025 | UNCA 96 – 87 PRES |
| Feb 14, 2024 | UNCA 71 – 69 PRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCA | PRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 5-27 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 1-17 |
| Home | 13-0 | 5-9 |
| Away | 10-6 | 0-15 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L18 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 61.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.8 | 70.4 |
| Massey | -0.9 (#192) | -9.7 (#329) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.53 (#128) | -2.93 (#356) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.43 (#143) | -3.07 (#350) |
| RPI | 0.536 (#109) | 0.344 (#362) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCA | PRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 37.5% | 30.5% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 47.1% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 24.9% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.1% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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