In North Carolina way back in the hills, there lived my pappy and he had him a still. "White Lightning" - The Big Bopper
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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17–12 on winners spread MAE 8.3 29 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Duke @ Notre Dame -3.6 145.0 36% 57–43 ✓
Kansas City @ Western Illinois +5.6 142.4 75% 83–75 ✗
Liberty @ Kennesaw State -2.5 137.9 36% 65–50 ✓
Hartford @ Maine -6.5 139.1 23% 78–66 ✓
UAlbany @ Vermont +14.4 134.4 88% 61–73 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Southern Utah +10.5 151.7 86% 66–78 ✓
Drexel @ UNC Wilmington +1.5 143.3 60% 63–70 ✓
Holy Cross @ Boston University +14.3 138.6 89% 75–70 ✗
Morehead State @ Tennessee Tech -3.8 141.4 32% 70–56 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Austin Peay +2.5 139.6 63% 63–68 ✓
Wofford @ Mercer -3.3 141.2 38% 62–67 ✗
Iowa @ Penn State -3.7 138.0 36% 86–90 ✗
Howard @ South Carolina State -6.0 153.8 29% 55–58 ✗
Morgan State @ Maryland Eastern Shore +6.5 141.7 76% 72–79 ✓
South Dakota State @ North Dakota -16.0 164.1 13% 70–64 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Alabama A&M -0.1 127.0 45% 52–67 ✗
Colorado State @ Wyoming +3.7 146.8 67% 78–84 ✓
Southern @ Jackson State -4.4 132.1 32% 75–64 ✓
Grambling @ Alcorn State +6.4 140.7 74% 80–73 ✗
West Virginia @ Baylor +12.5 137.9 88% 77–81 ✓
Eastern Washington @ Weber State +7.9 153.9 81% 84–90 ✓
Norfolk State @ North Carolina Central -3.3 140.4 33% 67–70 ✗
Florida A&M @ Alabama State +1.3 138.4 55% 66–65 ✗
Pacific @ Santa Clara +12.5 148.6 87% 59–81 ✓
TCU @ Oklahoma +4.7 129.1 67% 72–63 ✗
New Mexico @ San Diego State +11.1 140.7 87% 47–72 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Portland State -4.3 150.5 32% 76–79 ✗
Boston College @ Virginia +6.1 125.5 73% 55–67 ✓
Creighton @ UConn +11.6 141.2 86% 59–55 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.