What have I done? "Police On My Back" - The Clash
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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30–4 on winners spread MAE 8.4 34 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Louisville @ Tennessee +0.7 154.2 50% 62–83 ✓
DePaul @ St. John's +16.2 145.5 89% 66–79 ✓
Belmont @ Evansville -12.3 147.2 17% 83–78 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ UNC Greensboro +1.5 147.2 57% 71–65 ✗
Tarleton State @ Mississippi Valley State -11.8 152.1 15% 88–64 ✓
Kansas City @ Oklahoma +25.4 143.3 91% 67–89 ✓
Rider @ Delaware +13.0 129.8 88% 57–65 ✓
Miami (OH) @ Wright State +1.5 150.2 62% 83–76 ✗
Chicago State @ Bowling Green +25.1 146.0 91% 55–76 ✓
Florida State @ Dayton +8.6 154.1 82% 69–97 ✓
Canisius @ Rhode Island +18.4 131.7 89% 45–62 ✓
South Carolina @ Clemson +12.6 143.8 85% 61–68 ✓
Florida International @ Miami +21.1 152.4 90% 81–98 ✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Lamar +1.0 131.6 52% 83–72 ✗
Marist @ Georgia Tech +0.3 131.1 49% 76–87 ✓
Long Island University @ Mississippi State +8.8 151.6 80% 83–87 ✓
Little Rock @ Morehead State +6.5 140.2 78% 64–78 ✓
East Tennessee State @ North Carolina +13.4 144.2 84% 58–77 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Texas Tech +16.3 151.3 86% 90–101 ✓
Le Moyne @ Texas +20.3 156.0 89% 53–95 ✓
Oral Roberts @ Missouri State +3.4 144.1 62% 62–63 ✓
Valparaiso @ Northwestern +14.2 141.9 87% 70–86 ✓
Butler @ UConn +12.1 146.1 85% 60–79 ✓
Abilene Christian @ Arizona +32.2 138.8 91% 62–96 ✓
Pacific @ BYU +19.9 139.1 90% 57–93 ✓
Queens University @ Arkansas +22.8 162.5 91% 80–108 ✓
Towson @ Kansas +19.1 135.3 89% 49–73 ✓
Montana State @ Cal Poly -0.3 149.2 48% 83–80 ✓
Southern @ California Baptist +12.8 151.9 86% 67–75 ✓
UC San Diego @ Loyola Marymount -1.1 143.2 45% 67–57 ✓
Northern Iowa @ UIC -4.8 132.3 27% 60–54 ✓
Stonehill @ New Hampshire +4.8 135.6 62% 58–59 ✓
Saint Francis @ Florida +32.6 150.3 91% 61–102 ✓
Creighton @ Xavier +4.6 142.5 74% 98–57 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.