Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Over |
| Money | CP +136 MTST -162 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +3 | 163 | Lost |
| Massey | MTST -0.8 (-2.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.7 (+7.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CP -1.0 (-4.0) | 146.3 (+16.7) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -0.4 (-2.6) | 148.2 (+14.8) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -0.3 (-2.7) | 149.2 (+13.8) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -2.3 (-0.7) | 148.6 (+14.4) | 55% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CP | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 12-6 |
| Home | 8-6 | 11-2 |
| Away | 6-11 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 75.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 85.3 | 73.5 |
| Massey | -3.0 (#214) | 2.2 (#138) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.27 (#205) | -0.96 (#256) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.76 (#218) | -0.91 (#228) |
| RPI | 0.495 (#181) | 0.477 (#215) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CP | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.68 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 22.6% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 27.6% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.8% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.1% | 32.0% |
Game Analysis
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