Betting Lines
| Spread | GT -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | GT -298 MRST +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GT +11 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | GT -2.0 (+9.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.4 (+34.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GT -1.2 (+9.8) | 137.0 (+26.0) | 52% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | GT -3.3 (+7.7) | 136.2 (+26.8) | 59% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | GT -0.9 (+10.1) | 133.6 (+29.4) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GT -0.3 (+10.7) | 131.1 (+31.9) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GT | MRST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 19-12 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 12-8 |
| Home | 10-9 | 11-4 |
| Away | 1-9 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L12 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.8 | 68.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.4 | 63.9 |
| Massey | -0.7 (#178) | 1.7 (#144) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.59 (#227) | -0.05 (#187) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.19 (#248) | 0.21 (#166) |
| RPI | 0.469 (#233) | 0.485 (#201) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GT | MRST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.5% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 41.0 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.7% | 43.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 29.4% |
Game Analysis
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