Betting Lines
| Spread | TEX -29.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | TEX -20000 LEM +3500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TEX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TEX +42 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | TEX -21.1 (+20.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.1 (-16.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TEX -21.6 (+20.4) | 153.8 (-5.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | TEX -22.6 (+19.4) | 152.5 (-4.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | TEX -18.5 (+23.5) | 155.1 (-7.1) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TEX -20.3 (+21.7) | 156.0 (-8.0) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TEX | LEM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-15 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 10-8 |
| Home | 12-5 | 9-4 |
| Away | 5-6 | 5-12 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.7 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 73.9 |
| Massey | 10.0 (#61) | -6.7 (#278) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.17 (#91) | -1.57 (#293) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.16 (#71) | -2.69 (#318) |
| RPI | 0.486 (#198) | 0.432 (#292) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TEX | LEM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.5% | 48.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 39.9% |
| REB / G | 39.6 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 56.6% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 36.7% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 36.1% | 29.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 74.9% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.5% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
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