Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 162.5 Over |
| Money | DAY -290 FSU +235 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAY +28 | 166 | Won |
| Massey | DAY -5.9 (+22.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.2 (+1.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -7.6 (+20.4) | 161.6 (+4.4) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -8.0 (+20.0) | 153.4 (+12.6) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -8.6 (+19.4) | 154.1 (+11.9) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -9.3 (+18.7) | 156.9 (+9.1) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAY | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-12 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 10-8 |
| Home | 14-4 | 11-6 |
| Away | 8-5 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 80.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 77.9 |
| Massey | 6.4 (#91) | 4.9 (#109) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.37 (#82) | 0.01 (#181) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.71 (#85) | -0.06 (#179) |
| RPI | 0.557 (#86) | 0.501 (#172) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAY | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 14.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 32.7% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.2% | 23.6% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 64.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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