Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -23.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 169.5 Over |
| Money | ARK -6500 QUC +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +28 | 188 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -24.0 (+4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 173.3 (+14.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -23.6 (+4.4) | 161.7 (+26.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -21.4 (+6.6) | 165.2 (+22.8) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -22.8 (+5.2) | 162.5 (+25.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -27.2 (+0.8) | 162.0 (+26.0) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | QUC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 13-5 |
| Home | 17-1 | 12-2 |
| Away | 5-5 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 90.2 | 84.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.0 | 83.8 |
| Massey | 16.8 (#21) | -2.8 (#208) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.33 (#14) | -0.82 (#246) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.45 (#11) | -1.10 (#241) |
| RPI | 0.624 (#26) | 0.435 (#288) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | QUC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.9% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.88 | 1.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.8% | 57.0% |
| TOV% | 12.7% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 31.6% |
| FT Rate | 29.5% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 54.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 13.5% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 62.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.0% | 26.8% |
Game Analysis
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