Betting Lines
| Spread | KU -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | KU -1600 TOW +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | KU +24 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | KU -20.6 (+3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.5 (-9.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | KU -15.7 (+8.3) | 135.0 (-13.0) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | KU -18.2 (+5.8) | 136.4 (-14.4) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | KU -19.1 (+4.9) | 135.3 (-13.3) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | KU -17.9 (+6.1) | 135.9 (-13.9) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KU | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 9-9 |
| Home | 13-2 | 11-3 |
| Away | 5-6 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.1 | 67.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 66.4 |
| Massey | 17.2 (#18) | 1.1 (#154) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.19 (#15) | 1.07 (#99) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.51 (#16) | 1.36 (#103) |
| RPI | 0.653 (#10) | 0.574 (#64) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KU | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 28.0% |
| REB / G | 39.7 | 37.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 13.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 37.3% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 19.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.1% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.9% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.9% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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