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Baseline — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
10–3 on winners
spread MAE 7.7
13 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Wofford
@
Gardner-Webb
|
-8.0 | 147.4 | 22% | 83–57 | ✓ |
Niagara
@
VCU
|
+27.9 | 140.5 | 91% | 58–84 | ✓ |
East Texas A&M
@
SE Louisiana
|
+0.7 | 138.1 | 53% | 70–69 | ✗ |
Wyoming
@
South Dakota State
|
-6.5 | 144.9 | 25% | 87–72 | ✓ |
North Alabama
@
Alabama A&M
|
+3.4 | 135.1 | 61% | 60–68 | ✓ |
McNeese
@
Houston Christian
|
-11.2 | 141.7 | 18% | 78–68 | ✓ |
Incarnate Word
@
TCU
|
+17.7 | 145.7 | 89% | 65–69 | ✓ |
Howard
@
Drexel
|
+2.9 | 136.2 | 65% | 74–66 | ✗ |
Lipscomb
@
Duke
|
+24.9 | 147.3 | 90% | 73–97 | ✓ |
South Carolina Upstate
@
South Carolina State
|
-10.3 | 140.8 | 15% | 78–72 | ✓ |
Sacred Heart
@
UMass Lowell
|
+1.9 | 148.0 | 62% | 82–87 | ✓ |
Dartmouth
@
Holy Cross
|
+2.5 | 140.2 | 62% | 89–64 | ✗ |
Toledo
@
Michigan State
|
+19.4 | 139.4 | 89% | 69–92 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.