Betting Lines
| Spread | DART -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | HC +102 DART -122 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DART +25 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | HC -3.7 (-28.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.3 (+5.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HC -1.0 (-26.0) | 140.5 (+12.5) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HC -2.8 (-27.8) | 139.5 (+13.5) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HC -2.5 (-27.5) | 140.2 (+12.8) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HC -2.9 (-27.9) | 137.5 (+15.5) | 62% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HC | DART |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-22 | 11-16 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 5-9 |
| Home | 6-8 | 5-8 |
| Away | 4-14 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.9 | 73.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 78.4 |
| Massey | -5.6 (#257) | -4.9 (#244) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.74 (#244) | -1.65 (#303) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.44 (#259) | -2.53 (#308) |
| RPI | 0.486 (#196) | 0.434 (#287) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HC | DART |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 30.2 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 6.8 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 20.7% | 26.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 29.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.7% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.5% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 18.1% |
Game Analysis
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