Betting Lines
| Spread | VCU -30.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | VCU -8000 NIA +2200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VCU +26 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | VCU -32.5 (-6.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.9 (+1.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VCU -26.6 (-0.6) | 139.5 (+2.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VCU -23.7 (+2.3) | 139.6 (+2.4) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VCU -27.9 (-1.9) | 140.5 (+1.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VCU -26.1 (-0.1) | 140.0 (+2.0) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VCU | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-8 | 8-22 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 5-15 |
| Home | 15-2 | 6-7 |
| Away | 7-3 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.8 | 63.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 71.7 |
| Massey | 12.1 (#41) | -15.9 (#355) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.45 (#73) | -2.88 (#342) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.78 (#56) | -3.89 (#340) |
| RPI | 0.562 (#77) | 0.366 (#349) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VCU | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 29.7% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 26.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 6.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 47.1% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 35.2% | 20.2% |
| FT Rate | 33.2% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 55.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 67.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.4% | 30.5% |
Game Analysis
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