Betting Lines
| Spread | TCU -19.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | TCU -4500 UIW +1700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TCU +4 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | TCU -17.0 (-13.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.2 (-16.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TCU -16.5 (-12.5) | 146.0 (-12.0) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TCU -17.0 (-13.0) | 145.4 (-11.4) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TCU -17.7 (-13.7) | 145.7 (-11.7) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TCU -18.9 (-14.9) | 143.8 (-9.8) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TCU | UIW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-12 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 7-15 |
| Home | 14-5 | 9-6 |
| Away | 5-5 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.4 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 75.0 |
| Massey | 10.9 (#52) | -1.7 (#190) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.43 (#74) | -0.93 (#256) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.60 (#62) | -1.20 (#249) |
| RPI | 0.527 (#129) | 0.441 (#276) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TCU | UIW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 29.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 57.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.8% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 67.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 40.7% |
Game Analysis
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