Betting Lines
| Spread | DREX -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DREX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOW +8 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | DREX -5.3 (-13.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.7 (+1.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DREX -5.4 (-13.4) | 136.1 (+3.9) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DREX -2.6 (-10.6) | 135.4 (+4.6) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DREX -2.9 (-10.9) | 136.2 (+3.8) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DREX -3.3 (-11.3) | 136.6 (+3.4) | 61% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 17, 2024 | DREX 68 – 65 HOW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DREX | HOW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 11-3 |
| Home | 12-4 | 11-4 |
| Away | 4-10 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 6-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.3 | 75.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.6 | 69.4 |
| Massey | -6.9 (#280) | -7.8 (#292) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.63 (#300) | -1.41 (#282) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.25 (#292) | -1.93 (#279) |
| RPI | 0.396 (#325) | 0.418 (#307) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DREX | HOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.7% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 39.1 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 14.6 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.9% | 46.7% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 36.9% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 29.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 21.5% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 66.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.6% | 28.9% |
Game Analysis
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