Betting Lines
| Spread | DREX -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | HOW +105 DREX -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DREX +3 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | DREX -0.4 (-2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.2 (-11.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 36% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DREX -2.9 (-0.1) | 138.9 (-5.9) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOW -0.5 (-3.5) | 143.1 (-10.1) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HOW -0.9 (-3.9) | 143.5 (-10.5) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DREX -0.2 (-2.8) | 142.1 (-9.1) | 53% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 16, 2025 | HOW 74 – 66 DREX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOW | DREX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 7-7 | 9-9 |
| Home | 8-6 | 8-6 |
| Away | 3-11 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.7 | 67.6 |
| Massey | -5.1 (#257) | -0.5 (#170) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.05 (#265) | -0.00 (#171) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.67 (#275) | -0.22 (#184) |
| RPI | 0.484 (#203) | 0.478 (#214) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOW | DREX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 38.9% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 30.1 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 53.7% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 25.9% | 34.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 17.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.6% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 13.1% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.9% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
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