Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -32.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | DUKE -100000 LIP +5000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +24 | 170 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -26.5 (-2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.7 (+19.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -21.4 (+2.6) | 151.8 (+18.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -21.7 (+2.3) | 147.2 (+22.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -24.9 (-0.9) | 147.3 (+22.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -23.5 (+0.5) | 149.2 (+20.8) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | LIP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 35-3 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 12-6 |
| Home | 15-0 | 13-1 |
| Away | 10-1 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 10-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.6 | 77.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.6 | 77.0 |
| Massey | 26.5 (#3) | 4.5 (#113) |
| Bradley-Terry | 5.57 (#2) | 1.15 (#94) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 8.55 (#2) | 1.70 (#86) |
| RPI | 0.682 (#6) | 0.558 (#83) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | LIP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.0% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 42.2 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.83 | 1.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.4% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 36.2% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 29.3% | 18.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.0% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.9% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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