Betting Lines
| Spread | ARIZ -34.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | ARIZ -6500 ACU +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARIZ +34 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | ARIZ -33.4 (+0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.8 (+12.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARIZ -26.1 (+7.9) | 139.1 (+18.9) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARIZ -24.3 (+9.7) | 140.7 (+17.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARIZ -32.2 (+1.8) | 138.8 (+19.2) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARIZ -31.7 (+2.3) | 141.2 (+16.8) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARIZ | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 36-3 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 5-13 |
| Home | 16-1 | 9-5 |
| Away | 9-1 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 11-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 86.2 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 73.9 |
| Massey | 23.7 (#5) | -5.3 (#253) |
| Bradley-Terry | 5.72 (#1) | 0.34 (#151) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 8.49 (#3) | 0.29 (#161) |
| RPI | 0.684 (#4) | 0.512 (#151) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARIZ | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.6% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 37.7% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 43.3 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 14.1 | 13.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.61 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.6% | 46.1% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 21.3% |
| ORB% | 41.1% | 37.2% |
| FT Rate | 27.3% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.1% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 40.7% |
Game Analysis
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