Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -44.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FLA +41 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | FLA -41.7 (-0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.1 (+11.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FLA -27.9 (+13.1) | 149.6 (+13.4) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -24.6 (+16.4) | 147.7 (+15.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -32.6 (+8.4) | 150.3 (+12.7) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FLA -32.6 (+8.4) | 148.5 (+14.5) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FLA | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 7-24 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 5-13 |
| Home | 14-1 | 5-8 |
| Away | 8-2 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 5-5 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 87.1 | 70.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 83.1 |
| Massey | 17.0 (#19) | -20.3 (#363) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.14 (#47) | -4.16 (#363) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.51 (#35) | -6.24 (#364) |
| RPI | 0.620 (#29) | 0.362 (#351) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FLA | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 39.1% |
| 3PT% | 26.8% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 46.4 | 31.4 |
| OREB / G | 16.7 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 44.9% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 21.3% |
| ORB% | 42.1% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 29.6% | 14.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.1% | 62.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 67.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.2% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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