Betting Lines
| Spread | NU -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | NU -1450 VAL +850 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NU +16 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | NU -17.4 (-1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.6 (+12.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NU -16.6 (-0.6) | 143.5 (+12.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NU -13.6 (+2.4) | 141.7 (+14.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NU -14.2 (+1.8) | 141.9 (+14.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NU -14.5 (+1.5) | 142.6 (+13.4) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NU | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-19 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 11-9 |
| Home | 9-8 | 13-4 |
| Away | 3-8 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.1 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.0 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 9.4 (#68) | -3.6 (#225) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.69 (#126) | -1.17 (#268) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.78 (#124) | -1.47 (#258) |
| RPI | 0.534 (#119) | 0.412 (#314) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NU | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.1% | 38.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 29.3% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 39.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 14.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.90 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.8% | 44.7% |
| TOV% | 14.2% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 34.7% |
| FT Rate | 31.9% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 46.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 66.0% | 66.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 28.9% |
Game Analysis
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