Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -17.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | UNC -2100 ETSU +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +19 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -13.1 (+5.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.9 (-12.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -14.7 (+4.3) | 147.7 (-12.7) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -13.1 (+5.9) | 142.8 (-7.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -13.4 (+5.6) | 144.2 (-9.2) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -13.2 (+5.8) | 144.6 (-9.6) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-9 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 13-5 |
| Home | 18-0 | 13-4 |
| Away | 4-6 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.7 | 76.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 70.1 |
| Massey | 15.2 (#30) | 6.5 (#90) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.53 (#13) | 0.44 (#141) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.13 (#13) | 0.67 (#138) |
| RPI | 0.646 (#14) | 0.509 (#158) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 48.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 42.8 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.56 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 55.7% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 35.3% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 29.0% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.1% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.7% | 21.1% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.7% | 26.7% |
Game Analysis
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