Betting Lines
| Spread | TAR -17.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | MVSU +1100 TAR -2100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MVSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TAR +24 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | TAR -19.0 (-5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.2 (-7.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 0% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TAR -9.4 (-14.6) | 148.4 (+3.6) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TAR -10.4 (-13.6) | 148.2 (+3.8) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TAR -11.8 (-12.2) | 152.1 (-0.1) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TAR -11.2 (-12.8) | 146.0 (+6.0) | 20% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MVSU | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3-30 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 5-13 |
| Home | 2-9 | 10-6 |
| Away | 1-18 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.2 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 83.7 | 75.8 |
| Massey | -24.3 (#365) | -0.9 (#181) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.91 (#362) | 0.74 (#120) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -5.73 (#362) | 0.97 (#117) |
| RPI | 0.335 (#356) | 0.556 (#89) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MVSU | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.4% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 27.0% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 31.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.67 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.4% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 23.0% | 21.3% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 33.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 32.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.0% | 57.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.6% | 22.1% |
| DRB% | 61.9% | 63.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 38.1% | 33.2% |
Game Analysis
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