Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSD -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | LMU -105 UCSD -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSD +10 | 124 | Lost |
| Massey | UCSD -2.8 (-7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.5 (-19.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 32% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSD -1.5 (-8.5) | 143.0 (-19.0) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSD -1.6 (-8.4) | 140.7 (-16.7) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSD -1.1 (-8.9) | 143.2 (-19.2) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSD -1.2 (-8.8) | 143.0 (-19.0) | 47% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LMU | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 12-8 |
| Home | 10-8 | 10-5 |
| Away | 4-7 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 2.1 (#140) | 9.3 (#70) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.85 (#111) | 2.25 (#42) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.09 (#115) | 2.76 (#57) |
| RPI | 0.521 (#137) | 0.625 (#24) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LMU | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 50.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 40.2% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 59.2% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 14.3% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.1% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
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