You just want to be on the side that's winning. "Positively 4th Street" - Bob Dylan
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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26–9 on winners spread MAE 8.7 35 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Prairie View A&M @ Florida A&M +6.1 141.9 76% 66–75 ✓
Fairfield @ Sacred Heart +2.7 143.7 70% 58–71 ✓
Gonzaga @ Saint Mary's -1.1 131.4 44% 58–51 ✓
UAlbany @ Bryant +9.4 152.5 83% 78–91 ✓
Montana State @ Northern Colorado +4.0 145.5 74% 45–72 ✓
Florida International @ Western Kentucky +5.2 138.1 71% 64–61 ✗
Nicholls @ Lamar +0.0 135.7 49% 55–58 ✓
UCF @ Utah +1.4 154.7 47% 87–72 ✗
Idaho @ Montana +5.7 146.4 78% 55–78 ✓
Richmond @ Davidson +4.5 134.1 69% 65–69 ✓
Virginia @ Georgia Tech -0.3 132.8 57% 60–66 ✗
Cincinnati @ Iowa State +7.2 135.0 82% 56–76 ✓
Charlotte @ Rice +2.6 140.4 63% 64–61 ✗
South Carolina @ Arkansas +5.4 141.9 75% 68–72 ✓
Grambling @ Southern +6.2 128.1 67% 65–62 ✗
Wyoming @ San José State +2.6 137.5 62% 61–66 ✓
Fordham @ Rhode Island +6.4 151.0 74% 88–71 ✗
Notre Dame @ North Carolina +8.9 152.6 80% 56–76 ✓
Colorado @ West Virginia +5.4 130.7 69% 67–60 ✗
Northwestern @ Minnesota -4.0 129.0 32% 72–64 ✓
Texas @ Vanderbilt -0.0 154.8 48% 79–72 ✓
Butler @ Providence -2.3 146.8 34% 75–69 ✓
Fresno State @ Nevada +12.1 139.8 84% 71–86 ✓
La Salle @ Massachusetts -0.6 142.1 45% 78–71 ✓
Lamar @ McNeese +12.7 134.9 88% 54–63 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Norfolk State +15.2 141.1 89% 70–77 ✓
Rider @ Quinnipiac +4.6 141.6 70% 64–78 ✓
Iowa @ Ohio State +4.2 157.6 65% 77–70 ✗
UTEP @ Liberty +9.6 140.1 82% 60–81 ✓
DePaul @ Georgetown +3.1 143.4 63% 71–67 ✗
LSU @ Mississippi State +5.9 149.0 75% 62–91 ✓
Navy @ American University +3.3 133.6 67% 52–74 ✓
Air Force @ UNLV +11.6 132.0 87% 59–68 ✓
Kansas State @ Baylor +6.6 133.4 77% 56–70 ✓
California @ Stanford +3.3 142.9 67% 73–78 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.