Don't you understand that's not my problem? "Positively 4th Street" - Bob Dylan
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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13–8 on winners spread MAE 7.1 21 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Incarnate Word @ Nicholls +4.0 139.7 69% 70–74 ✓
Pepperdine @ Saint Mary's +17.8 132.6 90% 59–74 ✓
Charleston @ UNC Wilmington +3.0 147.4 67% 67–68 ✓
Idaho @ Portland State +3.8 139.9 62% 80–70 ✗
Youngstown State @ Cleveland State +1.4 138.6 59% 56–54 ✗
San Francisco @ Gonzaga +10.4 152.5 84% 76–85 ✓
Cincinnati @ Oklahoma State -4.4 137.5 37% 87–68 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Grambling +5.1 128.9 80% 56–73 ✓
Pittsburgh @ Notre Dame -4.3 145.2 38% 54–55 ✗
Colorado @ TCU +1.7 132.0 56% 69–67 ✗
Utah Tech @ Southern Utah -0.3 139.4 46% 72–65 ✓
California @ Virginia Tech -1.7 146.8 41% 82–73 ✓
Siena @ Rider -2.5 142.7 43% 76–78 ✗
Sam Houston @ UTEP +0.6 146.7 59% 65–79 ✓
Delaware @ UNC Wilmington +8.3 151.6 83% 72–76 ✓
Maine @ Vermont +1.9 127.6 58% 57–42 ✗
Northwestern State @ McNeese +14.4 136.2 88% 64–83 ✓
Saint Francis @ Central Connecticut +10.8 136.7 84% 46–43 ✗
Youngstown State @ Robert Morris +3.8 143.9 70% 78–89 ✓
Arizona State @ Kansas State +0.1 140.7 53% 66–71 ✓
Syracuse @ Florida State +2.6 150.4 63% 66–62 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.