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Baseline — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
5–8 on winners
spread MAE 10.2
13 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Monmouth
@
Charleston
|
+8.3 | 143.7 | 78% | 78–79 | ✓ |
Incarnate Word
@
SE Louisiana
|
+2.5 | 137.4 | 59% | 71–67 | ✗ |
Pepperdine
@
Santa Clara
|
+17.4 | 154.2 | 87% | 78–76 | ✗ |
Troy
@
James Madison
|
-1.8 | 138.4 | 39% | 79–60 | ✓ |
St. Thomas-Minnesota
@
Omaha
|
-1.5 | 153.2 | 48% | 75–85 | ✗ |
Northern Arizona
@
Montana
|
+4.2 | 143.8 | 73% | 65–74 | ✓ |
Washington State
@
San Francisco
|
+6.3 | 151.2 | 77% | 75–86 | ✓ |
Delaware
@
Towson
|
+4.9 | 147.4 | 74% | 82–72 | ✗ |
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
@
Northwestern State
|
-1.6 | 130.3 | 42% | 63–66 | ✗ |
Arkansas State
@
Troy
|
-0.5 | 140.8 | 44% | 81–94 | ✗ |
Wofford
@
Furman
|
+0.7 | 142.6 | 57% | 92–85 | ✗ |
Oakland
@
Robert Morris
|
+3.3 | 142.2 | 69% | 76–79 | ✓ |
Montana State
@
Idaho State
|
+0.7 | 140.0 | 55% | 80–60 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.