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Baseline — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
22–12 on winners
spread MAE 9.3
34 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+12.2 | 154.5 | 83% | 67–59 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.9 | 143.2 | 66% | 71–58 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.4 | 141.7 | 71% | 68–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.7 | 149.5 | 79% | 83–79 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.7 | 135.9 | 74% | 72–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.9 | 139.5 | 69% | 66–93 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.8 | 129.7 | 65% | 61–65 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.8 | 137.2 | 55% | 62–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.9 | 175.5 | 62% | 102–88 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.9 | 136.6 | 72% | 65–72 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.4 | 129.4 | 44% | 73–65 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.8 | 141.0 | 43% | 86–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.7 | 133.8 | 69% | 58–54 | ✗ |
|
|
-2.5 | 140.4 | 40% | 58–52 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.7 | 145.9 | 45% | 87–84 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.1 | 135.5 | 49% | 65–68 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.5 | 144.7 | 58% | 61–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.3 | 136.7 | 76% | 61–66 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.8 | 143.4 | 80% | 90–81 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.3 | 145.8 | 69% | 76–75 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.9 | 146.4 | 72% | 66–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.8 | 142.0 | 64% | 67–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.4 | 139.6 | 50% | 60–66 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.0 | 150.1 | 55% | 57–69 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.0 | 146.4 | 67% | 93–83 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.1 | 135.5 | 56% | 60–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.7 | 153.7 | 55% | 90–95 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.2 | 153.0 | 58% | 87–98 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.7 | 148.1 | 84% | 74–73 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.3 | 143.0 | 46% | 68–61 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.1 | 122.5 | 61% | 69–41 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.1 | 147.5 | 66% | 57–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.7 | 126.3 | 62% | 68–63 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.4 | 139.1 | 66% | 61–62 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.