And of all my friends, you've been the best to me. / Soon will be the day when I repay you handsomely. "Rush" - Big Audio Dynamite
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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21–7 on winners spread MAE 8.8 28 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
North Carolina @ Syracuse -6.3 151.1 30% 79–86 ✗
Iowa State @ Cincinnati -1.1 137.1 50% 68–59 ✓
Michigan @ Illinois +11.8 156.4 87% 68–97 ✓
Duquesne @ Dayton +9.9 135.0 83% 59–75 ✓
Pittsburgh @ Virginia +4.0 122.9 62% 74–63 ✗
Illinois State @ Indiana State +17.3 141.1 89% 80–67 ✗
St. John's @ Providence +1.9 144.7 64% 72–75 ✓
Texas A&M @ Vanderbilt -12.0 136.5 18% 73–74 ✗
George Washington @ George Mason +9.9 149.1 83% 67–90 ✓
La Salle @ Davidson +9.9 141.7 83% 56–71 ✓
Drake @ Evansville -6.8 144.0 25% 78–75 ✓
LSU @ Florida +8.9 160.3 83% 80–82 ✓
Buffalo @ Northern Illinois +9.0 148.7 79% 68–72 ✓
Georgetown @ Creighton +17.9 154.6 90% 72–94 ✓
Tennessee State @ Tennessee Tech -3.7 135.8 37% 50–70 ✗
Oklahoma @ Baylor +5.2 147.4 78% 62–79 ✓
UCF @ BYU +10.8 140.5 87% 88–90 ✓
Ohio State @ Wisconsin +6.6 144.5 78% 54–62 ✓
Ole Miss @ Kentucky +6.4 159.5 77% 63–75 ✓
Louisville @ Boston College +9.7 149.7 82% 77–89 ✓
Florida State @ Virginia Tech +5.5 148.8 73% 75–83 ✓
Colorado State @ San Diego State +4.1 140.5 75% 55–71 ✓
Air Force @ San José State +2.0 136.3 64% 66–73 ✓
New Mexico @ Nevada +2.2 150.1 61% 83–82 ✗
Boston University @ Army -0.4 124.9 48% 50–65 ✗
Presbyterian @ UNC Asheville +9.1 150.0 83% 69–71 ✓
Michigan State @ Penn State -2.5 140.7 42% 80–72 ✓
Robert Morris @ Youngstown State +11.0 152.6 86% 77–87 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.