Then she opened up a book of poems and handed it to me, written by an Italian poet from the thirteenth century. "Tangled Up in Blue" - Bob Dylan
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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22–8 on winners spread MAE 8.9 37 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Fresno State @ Kent State — — — 69–79 —
Stetson @ UNLV — — — 55–71 —
Bucknell @ Niagara +10.7 136.2 80% 73–64 ✗
UAlbany @ Columbia +4.9 141.4 64% 78–75 ✗
Saint Francis @ Santa Clara +16.5 138.6 88% 59–82 ✓
Louisiana @ Toledo +17.4 142.0 85% 78–87 ✓
Siena @ Richmond +15.4 149.9 85% 48–90 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Loyola Chicago +6.0 135.9 74% 65–89 ✓
Utah State @ Bradley — — — 66–72 —
Omaha @ North Texas +9.1 142.8 80% 64–75 ✓
Illinois State @ Saint Louis — — — 71–80 —
Holy Cross @ Georgetown +16.8 145.8 85% 68–67 ✗
Cal Poly @ Wyoming — — — 66–80 —
New Mexico State @ UC Irvine +12.9 134.2 86% 74–91 ✓
Long Beach State @ DePaul +1.3 146.3 58% 77–73 ✗
San Diego @ UC San Diego +5.9 147.6 60% 63–69 ✓
Bryant @ Rutgers +18.7 128.7 86% 57–66 ✓
Eastern Washington @ Cincinnati +22.2 145.7 89% 73–85 ✓
Maryland @ UAB -2.5 133.2 50% 63–66 ✗
Air Force @ Delaware +16.8 134.7 86% 57–65 ✓
Idaho State @ Iowa State +22.7 133.3 88% 55–86 ✓
Lehigh @ North Carolina +14.2 150.9 82% 68–90 ✓
San José State @ Texas Tech +14.0 133.7 84% 42–56 ✓
Elon @ North Dakota +3.3 154.7 52% 68–85 ✓
East Texas A&M @ Purdue Fort Wayne +17.2 140.0 87% 64–86 ✓
Sam Houston @ Oklahoma State -1.5 131.5 56% 70–85 ✗
Davidson @ Clemson +1.2 136.1 62% 65–68 ✓
San Francisco @ Boise State — — — 58–63 —
Howard @ James Madison +10.1 164.3 82% 86–107 ✓
Merrimack @ Maine +3.1 132.3 69% 71–65 ✗
Lafayette @ Pepperdine +11.4 140.9 84% 53–76 ✓
Chicago State @ Southern Indiana +7.6 127.9 66% 78–67 ✗
Gardner-Webb @ Baylor +13.5 149.8 85% 62–77 ✓
North Carolina Central @ Georgia +8.9 147.7 78% 54–64 ✓
UC Riverside @ Portland +10.5 139.3 82% 65–76 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Grand Canyon +22.8 142.0 89% 55–89 ✓
Yale @ Loyola Marymount — — — 83–80 —

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.