We're only making plans for Nigel. "Making Plans for Nigel" - XTC
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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21–10 on winners spread MAE 9.0 31 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Cincinnati @ Tulane +1.4 155.6 59% 94–101 ✓
Chicago State @ Delaware State -2.7 140.2 36% 60–66 ✗
North Carolina @ Wake Forest +0.4 154.1 48% 85–92 ✓
Louisville @ Pittsburgh +16.5 138.2 89% 57–91 ✓
Auburn @ Texas A&M +1.9 142.0 62% 78–83 ✓
Ole Miss @ Georgia +1.7 142.1 62% 78–74 ✗
Dayton @ VCU +4.3 132.2 70% 62–58 ✗
East Tennessee State @ UNC Greensboro +8.3 130.4 81% 65–91 ✓
Ball State @ Central Michigan -5.7 145.0 30% 65–51 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Buffalo +9.3 162.3 84% 97–102 ✓
Western Michigan @ Miami (OH) +1.8 150.5 64% 78–85 ✓
Toledo @ Akron +3.4 151.1 59% 84–74 ✗
Bowling Green @ Kent State +14.3 147.2 87% 64–87 ✓
Drake @ Murray State -4.4 147.4 38% 92–68 ✓
Ohio @ Northern Illinois -1.0 151.9 51% 82–76 ✓
St. John's @ Butler +2.4 143.5 65% 66–68 ✓
NC State @ Virginia +5.9 140.8 78% 50–63 ✓
TCU @ Kansas State +3.4 147.9 69% 61–82 ✓
Maryland @ Michigan State +1.2 131.6 55% 58–63 ✓
South Carolina @ Missouri +16.7 150.0 89% 74–83 ✓
Arkansas @ Kentucky +2.6 139.6 68% 88–73 ✗
Rhode Island @ Saint Louis +9.4 143.0 82% 71–76 ✓
Colorado State @ Air Force +0.5 138.4 50% 69–53 ✗
San José State @ Fresno State -0.7 132.4 41% 62–70 ✗
Nevada @ New Mexico +4.1 151.4 67% 77–76 ✗
Loyola Maryland @ Army +8.4 136.4 80% 70–76 ✓
Hofstra @ Northeastern -7.8 145.8 24% 72–53 ✓
Creighton @ Seton Hall +0.3 135.0 50% 75–62 ✗
Nebraska @ Michigan +6.4 138.0 78% 72–93 ✓
Winthrop @ UNC Asheville +5.9 145.8 77% 79–86 ✓
Monmouth @ Stony Brook +3.9 130.8 62% 61–54 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.