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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
20–16 on winners
spread MAE 7.2
36 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
@
Southern
|
+3.5 | 162.1 | 63% | 81–84 | ✓ |
Southern Utah
@
UT Arlington
|
+6.8 | 142.5 | 73% | 63–69 | ✓ |
Kennesaw State
@
Western Kentucky
|
+1.5 | 162.6 | 55% | 96–87 | ✗ |
Colorado State
@
San Diego State
|
+4.5 | 146.4 | 66% | 62–71 | ✓ |
UC San Diego
@
Cal State Northridge
|
-4.4 | 154.7 | 34% | 70–80 | ✗ |
Rutgers
@
UCLA
|
+12.1 | 147.1 | 86% | 59–72 | ✓ |
Maryland Eastern Shore
@
North Carolina Central
|
-1.0 | 133.5 | 46% | 76–83 | ✗ |
Clemson
@
North Carolina
|
+1.6 | 140.2 | 56% | 80–79 | ✗ |
Georgetown
@
Villanova
|
+7.9 | 145.3 | 76% | 78–64 | ✗ |
Florida Atlantic
@
North Texas
|
-1.8 | 139.6 | 44% | 70–74 | ✗ |
TCU
@
Kansas
|
+5.7 | 143.8 | 70% | 73–78 | ✓ |
Oklahoma
@
Texas A&M
|
+2.0 | 170.2 | 57% | 83–63 | ✗ |
Abilene Christian
@
Utah Tech
|
+3.4 | 144.9 | 62% | 74–80 | ✓ |
UC Davis
@
Cal State Fullerton
|
-1.1 | 162.2 | 46% | 70–82 | ✗ |
San José State
@
New Mexico
|
+15.5 | 153.8 | 92% | 77–93 | ✓ |
George Washington
@
Saint Louis
|
+7.8 | 167.2 | 76% | 81–88 | ✓ |
Ohio State
@
Michigan
|
+13.5 | 162.1 | 89% | 67–71 | ✓ |
Missouri State
@
Louisiana Tech
|
-0.2 | 134.8 | 49% | 66–69 | ✗ |
Kentucky
@
Florida
|
+8.3 | 156.2 | 77% | 63–71 | ✓ |
Charlotte
@
UAB
|
+3.8 | 149.7 | 63% | 83–78 | ✗ |
Prairie View A&M
@
Alabama A&M
|
+0.1 | 150.7 | 50% | 74–55 | ✗ |
St. Bonaventure
@
Dayton
|
+5.7 | 150.2 | 70% | 63–68 | ✓ |
Wisconsin
@
Illinois
|
+8.0 | 163.2 | 77% | 91–88 | ✗ |
Kennesaw State
@
Sam Houston
|
+5.2 | 166.4 | 68% | 79–73 | ✗ |
North Texas
@
Tulsa
|
+9.5 | 143.7 | 81% | 84–90 | ✓ |
Tennessee
@
Vanderbilt
|
-0.3 | 152.5 | 49% | 68–75 | ✗ |
Massachusetts
@
Toledo
|
+3.1 | 164.6 | 61% | 67–77 | ✓ |
Duquesne
@
VCU
|
+9.6 | 160.9 | 81% | 66–71 | ✓ |
Seton Hall
@
St. John's
|
+9.6 | 136.0 | 81% | 68–78 | ✓ |
South Carolina State
@
Howard
|
+16.3 | 146.8 | 93% | 61–78 | ✓ |
Purdue
@
Nebraska
|
-2.6 | 145.9 | 41% | 74–58 | ✓ |
Iowa State
@
Arizona
|
+2.2 | 149.0 | 58% | 80–82 | ✓ |
Miami
@
Virginia
|
+2.7 | 150.4 | 60% | 62–84 | ✓ |
Ole Miss
@
Alabama
|
+11.5 | 166.9 | 85% | 80–79 | ✗ |
Kent State
@
Akron
|
+9.8 | 172.7 | 81% | 68–75 | ✓ |
Davidson
@
Saint Joseph's
|
-1.8 | 136.4 | 43% | 58–70 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.