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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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21–8 on winners spread MAE 7.6 29 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Georgetown @ UConn	+13.2	141.7	88%	51–67	✓
Southern @ Florida A&M	-3.1	151.1	39%	73–70	✓
UCLA @ Michigan State	+5.5	142.5	69%	88–84	✗
UT Arlington @ Utah Valley	+6.7	137.5	73%	65–67	✓
Cal State Northridge @ UC Irvine	+4.8	152.0	67%	78–93	✓
Delaware State @ North Carolina Central	+3.9	134.9	64%	53–59	✓
Nevada @ Utah State	+6.5	152.9	72%	66–79	✓
Clemson @ Duke	+13.3	134.8	89%	61–73	✓
Kansas @ Houston	+4.5	135.4	66%	47–69	✓
Oklahoma @ Arkansas	+6.5	171.7	72%	79–82	✓
Utah Tech @ California Baptist	+4.8	144.3	67%	72–86	✓
Cal State Fullerton @ Hawai'i	+5.3	159.0	69%	63–78	✓
New Mexico @ San Diego State	-0.1	153.0	50%	62–64	✗
Cornell @ Yale	+7.1	175.5	74%	76–88	✓
Vermont @ UMBC	+4.4	142.1	65%	59–74	✓
Wisconsin @ Michigan	+13.2	167.7	88%	65–68	✓
Vanderbilt @ Florida	+5.6	162.0	70%	91–74	✗
Dayton @ Saint Louis	+7.9	154.4	76%	70–69	✗
North Carolina Central @ Howard	+13.5	147.1	89%	63–70	✓
Pennsylvania @ Harvard	+0.4	138.1	52%	62–60	✗
Charlotte @ South Florida	+11.8	160.6	86%	64–86	✓
Ole Miss @ Arkansas	+10.9	161.9	84%	90–93	✓
Purdue @ UCLA	-6.6	149.1	27%	73–66	✓
Saint Joseph's @ VCU	+9.1	151.1	80%	64–77	✓
Tulsa @ Wichita State	-3.7	157.2	37%	68–81	✗
San Diego State @ Utah State	+3.9	153.4	64%	62–73	✓
Houston @ Arizona	+2.4	141.7	59%	74–79	✓
UConn @ St. John's	-0.1	145.0	50%	52–72	✗
Prairie View A&M @ Southern	+1.5	161.1	56%	72–66	✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.