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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
6–4 on winners
spread MAE 8.5
10 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Toledo
@
Akron
|
+7.9 | 165.2 | 76% | 76–79 | ✓ |
Kennesaw State
@
Louisiana Tech
|
-2.1 | 146.4 | 42% | 71–60 | ✓ |
Virginia
@
Duke
|
+9.4 | 142.7 | 80% | 70–74 | ✓ |
Hawai'i
@
UC Irvine
|
-0.3 | 139.7 | 49% | 71–64 | ✓ |
California Baptist
@
Utah Valley
|
+3.2 | 143.3 | 61% | 63–61 | ✗ |
Pennsylvania
@
Yale
|
+7.7 | 151.7 | 76% | 88–84 | ✗ |
Vanderbilt
@
Arkansas
|
-1.5 | 175.0 | 45% | 75–86 | ✗ |
Dayton
@
VCU
|
+3.8 | 150.0 | 63% | 62–70 | ✓ |
Wichita State
@
South Florida
|
+3.8 | 160.3 | 63% | 55–70 | ✓ |
Purdue
@
Michigan
|
+6.1 | 157.9 | 71% | 80–72 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.