But anyone who ever had heart, they wouldn't turn around and break it. "Sweet Jane" - Lou Reed
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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24–7 on winners spread MAE 7.6 31 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Wake Forest @ Duke +23.2 136.8 98% 60–93 ✓
Austin Peay @ North Alabama +12.5 145.8 87% 64–90 ✓
Queens University @ Florida Gulf Coast +5.9 145.6 71% 71–65 ✗
Eastern Kentucky @ Jacksonville +3.1 146.8 61% 67–78 ✓
Southern @ Florida A&M -2.9 140.2 40% 73–70 ✓
Grambling @ Bethune-Cookman +6.3 131.6 72% 71–78 ✓
Texas Southern @ Alcorn State +1.2 135.7 54% 75–59 ✗
McNeese @ Stephen F. Austin -11.4 131.0 15% 95–64 ✓
Howard @ South Carolina State +10.4 155.9 83% 69–79 ✓
Norfolk State @ North Carolina Central -6.0 149.6 29% 87–91 ✗
Delaware State @ Morgan State -0.1 165.5 49% 81–87 ✗
Incarnate Word @ Northwestern State +2.7 133.1 60% 57–73 ✓
SE Louisiana @ UT Rio Grande Valley +0.9 150.3 53% 76–77 ✓
Houston Christian @ East Texas A&M -0.9 134.1 47% 59–63 ✗
Central Arkansas @ Lipscomb +22.4 143.6 98% 66–84 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Coppin State +3.3 134.0 62% 72–59 ✗
New Orleans @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +16.3 152.2 93% 62–95 ✓
Nicholls @ Lamar +2.5 140.9 59% 53–65 ✓
Kansas @ Houston +11.4 131.3 85% 59–65 ✓
Wichita State @ North Texas +9.9 128.4 82% 66–68 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Jackson State +13.5 153.8 89% 74–88 ✓
UCLA @ Northwestern -1.3 132.5 45% 73–69 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Idaho State +6.7 142.5 73% 82–79 ✗
Idaho @ Montana State +7.5 148.2 75% 60–75 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Weber State -6.7 153.4 27% 68–63 ✓
Sacramento State @ Portland State +13.9 133.6 90% 56–59 ✓
Eastern Washington @ Montana +9.0 149.8 79% 72–83 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ Southern Miss +2.5 141.7 59% 63–66 ✓
UMass Lowell @ Maine +5.0 148.1 68% 70–71 ✓
New Hampshire @ Bryant +20.2 151.9 97% 56–90 ✓
Georgia @ South Carolina -3.1 135.2 39% 73–64 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.