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Efficiency Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
23–8 on winners
spread MAE 8.9
31 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+1.4 | 154.7 | 58% | 94–101 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.8 | 136.2 | 34% | 60–66 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.0 | 154.8 | 55% | 85–92 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.9 | 140.9 | 89% | 57–91 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.5 | 140.4 | 72% | 78–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.6 | 140.4 | 56% | 78–74 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.3 | 130.3 | 70% | 62–58 | ✗ |
|
|
+7.6 | 130.1 | 76% | 65–91 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.2 | 142.5 | 33% | 65–51 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.4 | 159.6 | 85% | 97–102 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.1 | 144.3 | 67% | 78–85 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.9 | 146.7 | 67% | 84–74 | ✗ |
|
|
+13.7 | 146.6 | 87% | 64–87 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.3 | 145.4 | 43% | 92–68 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.9 | 148.3 | 40% | 82–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.1 | 143.8 | 59% | 66–68 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.2 | 132.6 | 75% | 50–63 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.8 | 148.4 | 70% | 61–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.4 | 129.1 | 61% | 58–63 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.1 | 150.1 | 88% | 74–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.0 | 137.4 | 69% | 88–73 | ✗ |
|
|
+9.9 | 142.4 | 83% | 71–76 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.1 | 135.1 | 47% | 69–53 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.4 | 129.6 | 48% | 62–70 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.6 | 147.1 | 66% | 77–76 | ✗ |
|
|
+7.1 | 133.4 | 79% | 70–76 | ✓ |
|
|
-7.0 | 145.7 | 27% | 72–53 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.2 | 135.7 | 56% | 75–62 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.4 | 137.2 | 81% | 72–93 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.6 | 143.5 | 73% | 79–86 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.0 | 129.4 | 57% | 61–54 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.