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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
25–7 on winners
spread MAE 10.8
32 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nebraska
@
Michigan
|
+10.7 | 147.5 | 83% | 72–75 | ✓ |
Arkansas
@
Oklahoma
|
-5.8 | 162.8 | 28% | 83–79 | ✓ |
Virginia
@
Notre Dame
|
-6.3 | 141.1 | 27% | 100–97 | ✓ |
East Texas A&M
@
Lamar
|
+5.4 | 139.5 | 74% | 61–82 | ✓ |
Richmond
@
VCU
|
+10.2 | 149.4 | 84% | 69–77 | ✓ |
Rhode Island
@
Dayton
|
+5.6 | 134.6 | 72% | 81–76 | ✗ |
Arizona State
@
UCF
|
+8.5 | 157.7 | 80% | 76–79 | ✓ |
Syracuse
@
NC State
|
+12.3 | 151.5 | 87% | 68–88 | ✓ |
Toledo
@
Akron
|
+13.2 | 158.1 | 87% | 81–91 | ✓ |
Ohio
@
Kent State
|
+6.1 | 158.3 | 77% | 57–72 | ✓ |
Eastern Michigan
@
Central Michigan
|
-6.9 | 136.4 | 22% | 65–100 | ✗ |
Buffalo
@
Bowling Green
|
+7.5 | 146.6 | 79% | 89–78 | ✗ |
McNeese
@
SE Louisiana
|
-12.1 | 133.4 | 15% | 76–66 | ✓ |
Providence
@
UConn
|
+14.3 | 159.4 | 88% | 81–87 | ✓ |
George Washington
@
Saint Louis
|
+13.1 | 159.7 | 87% | 76–79 | ✓ |
Missouri
@
Alabama
|
+10.9 | 161.1 | 86% | 64–90 | ✓ |
Indiana State
@
UIC
|
+8.3 | 139.9 | 81% | 74–76 | ✓ |
Georgia Tech
@
Virginia Tech
|
+11.0 | 151.2 | 86% | 65–71 | ✓ |
Incarnate Word
@
Houston Christian
|
-1.5 | 135.5 | 44% | 75–81 | ✗ |
Western Michigan
@
Northern Illinois
|
-2.3 | 141.0 | 41% | 65–85 | ✗ |
Kansas State
@
West Virginia
|
+5.2 | 142.9 | 72% | 54–59 | ✓ |
Purdue
@
Indiana
|
-2.0 | 144.6 | 38% | 67–72 | ✗ |
Kentucky
@
Vanderbilt
|
+6.5 | 158.4 | 74% | 55–80 | ✓ |
Massachusetts
@
Miami (OH)
|
+13.2 | 158.6 | 87% | 84–86 | ✓ |
Saint Joseph's
@
Loyola Chicago
|
-5.4 | 141.5 | 25% | 85–64 | ✓ |
Creighton
@
Marquette
|
-4.7 | 149.7 | 30% | 62–86 | ✗ |
Boise State
@
San José State
|
-11.0 | 140.0 | 16% | 89–58 | ✓ |
Grand Canyon
@
Nevada
|
+4.4 | 140.3 | 70% | 60–66 | ✓ |
New Mexico
@
UNLV
|
-5.4 | 148.9 | 28% | 89–61 | ✓ |
Mississippi Valley State
@
Southern
|
+16.4 | 141.7 | 90% | 69–80 | ✓ |
Lehigh
@
Army
|
+0.3 | 148.5 | 49% | 64–67 | ✓ |
Baylor
@
Cincinnati
|
+0.9 | 145.2 | 58% | 57–67 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.