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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
7–7 on winners
spread MAE 12.0
14 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Louisville
@
Duke
|
+9.1 | 150.8 | 80% | 52–83 | ✓ |
Morgan State
@
Norfolk State
|
+11.1 | 144.8 | 86% | 79–78 | ✗ |
Jackson State
@
Florida A&M
|
+9.1 | 141.0 | 83% | 66–65 | ✗ |
Alcorn State
@
Bethune-Cookman
|
+12.7 | 144.8 | 87% | 73–82 | ✓ |
Penn State
@
Ohio State
|
+12.4 | 150.8 | 88% | 78–84 | ✓ |
Central Connecticut
@
Stonehill
|
-2.8 | 132.9 | 33% | 59–61 | ✗ |
UT Rio Grande Valley
@
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
|
+2.1 | 130.1 | 61% | 64–55 | ✗ |
Arizona
@
BYU
|
-1.4 | 159.0 | 42% | 86–83 | ✓ |
Alabama A&M
@
Prairie View A&M
|
+1.1 | 144.8 | 56% | 80–60 | ✗ |
Alabama State
@
Texas Southern
|
+0.2 | 149.9 | 48% | 64–96 | ✓ |
Northwestern State
@
Stephen F. Austin
|
+15.5 | 142.1 | 88% | 67–69 | ✓ |
New Orleans
@
Nicholls
|
+2.7 | 151.1 | 65% | 80–62 | ✗ |
Wake Forest
@
Pittsburgh
|
-0.4 | 144.2 | 50% | 76–80 | ✗ |
Michigan State
@
Rutgers
|
-14.0 | 132.7 | 14% | 88–79 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.