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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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28–5 on winners spread MAE 11.8 44 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Arkansas @ Michigan State +1.2 149.2 54% 66–69 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Wichita State — — — 62–105 —
Queens University @ Villanova +4.8 136.4 69% 74–94 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Tarleton State -0.6 138.7 47% 77–85 ✗
Weber State @ Utah — — — 89–92 —
Army @ St. Thomas-Minnesota — — — 76–83 —
Central Michigan @ Bradley +3.2 136.3 60% 54–85 ✓
Bellarmine @ Kansas State +16.1 148.5 88% 71–98 ✓
Tennessee State @ Belmont — — — 79–87 —
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Southern Utah +3.3 147.2 68% 95–72 ✗
Holy Cross @ BYU +7.5 142.3 77% 53–98 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Loyola Marymount +12.6 134.0 83% 72–94 ✓
Chattanooga @ UNLV +2.3 146.7 60% 69–101 ✓
Houston Christian @ UC San Diego — — — 60–78 —
Cal Poly @ Seattle U +14.3 146.7 86% 73–71 ✗
Pacific @ Nevada — — — 77–78 —
Oklahoma @ Gonzaga +15.3 147.7 87% 68–83 ✓
New Hampshire @ Harvard — — — 75–86 —
Western Michigan @ Campbell +3.0 143.4 65% 82–91 ✓
North Carolina Central @ App State +8.3 147.3 79% 54–76 ✓
Indiana @ Marquette -2.0 144.2 44% 100–77 ✓
Coppin State @ James Madison +14.2 142.6 88% 70–84 ✓
Pennsylvania @ American University — — — 78–84 —
Morehead State @ Georgia +25.8 143.3 91% 81–120 ✓
Lipscomb @ Mercer +10.5 143.0 85% 77–92 ✓
Le Moyne @ Bowling Green +14.8 139.9 85% 60–83 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ North Dakota +3.8 137.6 66% 93–85 ✗
South Dakota State @ Northern Iowa +12.8 142.9 82% 58–65 ✓
Vermont @ Brown — — — 89–84 —
Marist @ Dartmouth — — — 75–56 —
Texas A&M @ Oklahoma State +6.6 156.3 73% 63–87 ✓
Cornell @ Illinois State +5.4 146.4 72% 65–76 ✓
Denver @ Montana State +4.4 144.5 68% 75–73 ✗
Lehigh @ West Virginia +8.6 132.8 73% 47–69 ✓
Utah Tech @ Arizona State +8.9 144.9 77% 66–81 ✓
VMI @ Missouri +9.3 149.1 77% 68–106 ✓
North Texas @ Loyola Chicago -5.5 139.2 29% 64–62 ✓
UC Davis @ Portland +5.7 147.9 68% 63–67 ✓
Idaho State @ San Diego State +9.9 134.7 73% 57–73 ✓
Grambling @ Howard -1.1 147.0 48% 73–70 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ Liberty +5.5 151.8 63% 68–88 ✓
Manhattan @ USC — — — 83–114 —
Omaha @ Colorado State +13.2 145.1 84% 74–97 ✓
Southern Miss @ South Carolina +11.4 148.3 82% 79–83 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.