Betting Lines
| Spread | LMU -19.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | LMU -4000 UAPB +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LMU +22 | 166 | Won |
| Massey | LMU -20.6 (+1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.0 (+29.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LMU -12.6 (+9.4) | 134.0 (+32.0) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LMU -14.9 (+7.1) | 134.0 (+32.0) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LMU -13.5 (+8.5) | 136.9 (+29.1) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LMU | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 10-8 |
| Home | 10-8 | 7-4 |
| Away | 4-7 | 6-14 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 81.9 |
| Massey | -1.0 (#189) | -7.3 (#301) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.32 (#143) | -0.65 (#267) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.42 (#144) | -0.90 (#266) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#76) | 0.500 (#76) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LMU | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 30.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 28.6% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 0.54 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 37.1% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 22.9% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.3% | 53.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 81.8% | 63.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.7% | 40.8% |
Game Analysis
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