Betting Lines
| Spread | ASU -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | ASU -1400 UTU +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ASU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ASU +15 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | ASU -12.7 (+2.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.7 (-3.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | ASU -8.9 (+6.1) | 144.9 (+2.1) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ASU -11.1 (+3.9) | 143.5 (+3.5) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ASU | UTU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 11-7 |
| Home | 10-5 | 11-3 |
| Away | 2-9 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.3 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.3 | 77.0 |
| Massey | 0.9 (#149) | 2.5 (#126) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.42 (#113) | 1.42 (#36) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.60 (#115) | 1.73 (#43) |
| RPI | — | 0.550 (#73) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ASU | UTU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.2% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 39.1% | 26.5% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.8% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.0% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 63.6% | 64.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 11.4% | 31.8% |
Game Analysis
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