Betting Lines
| Spread | MIZ -23.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 161.5 Over |
| Money | MIZ -10000 VMI +2500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIZ +38 | 174 | Won |
| Massey | MIZ -13.3 (+24.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.4 (+12.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIZ -9.3 (+28.7) | 149.1 (+24.9) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIZ -12.7 (+25.3) | 151.4 (+22.6) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIZ -9.5 (+28.5) | 156.0 (+18.0) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIZ | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 6-26 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 1-17 |
| Home | 15-3 | 5-9 |
| Away | 5-6 | 1-14 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L4 | L17 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.2 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.5 | 83.2 |
| Massey | 4.5 (#82) | 5.4 (#64) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.93 (#14) | 1.83 (#24) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.80 (#13) | 2.47 (#23) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#76) | 0.500 (#76) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIZ | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 57.4% | 38.0% |
| 3PT% | 47.1% | 28.1% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 48.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 1.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 64.3% | 44.4% |
| TOV% | 23.4% | 12.7% |
| ORB% | 39.7% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 41.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 14.1% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 17.6% |
Game Analysis
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