Betting Lines
| Spread | HOW -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | HOW -195 GRAM +165 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GRAM +3 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | HOW -5.4 (-8.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.8 (-14.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GRAM -1.1 (-1.9) | 147.0 (-4.0) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOW -0.0 (-3.0) | 147.3 (-4.3) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GRAM -0.6 (-2.4) | 144.2 (-1.2) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOW | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 11-3 | 7-11 |
| Home | 11-4 | 7-5 |
| Away | 7-6 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 6-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.5 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 71.3 |
| Massey | -15.4 (#338) | -6.5 (#286) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.84 (#321) | -0.37 (#213) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.75 (#329) | -0.56 (#221) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#76) | 0.500 (#76) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOW | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 35.5% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 41.4% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 28.0 | 25.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 5.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 0.53 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.2% | 46.9% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 25.7% |
| ORB% | 24.4% | 15.6% |
| FT Rate | 17.7% | 32.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 63.9% | 63.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.5% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 52.9% | 55.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.4% | 27.3% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.